06 June 2011

Still not a whole lot has changed with my overall impression of the latest system that I am following. The front has become stationary over IL and the MRV (Miss. River Valley) as of the 09z chart update. High pressure still dominating regional weather however SE flow from high pressure flow will begin to push up warm air and moist air from the south towards the region.

Looking at the latest radar, a cluster of storms N of KORD (Chicago O'Hare Int'l) is moving ESE towards GRB and Lake Michigan at this time. Wondering if it'll hold over Lake Michigan...if so it could be something to keep an eye on for DTW later this evening. GRB will be seeing these storms soon, nothing strong yet however a single warning on one cell...more or less the line is more rainy than anything else...will keep an eye on that however for the fun of it.

Looking at dew points...they are going up over IL at this time...right behind that stationary front. Front is noticable on the recent dew point plot. Could help in aiding some storm development in the region later.

Biggest area for storms that I am watching out for is FTW and TOL and possible DTW. GRB is already going to be seeing storms so I am not to concerned about the accuracy of the forecast for today...seeing as how storms are only about an hour or so away from them at this time.

When this stationary front begins to move E as a warm front, I am thinking it could provide some decent lift later this afternoon in the above mentioned places. Now, I am did put "pop up" for the forecast this afternoon in those areas...that is more for safety. To be 100% confident on that I have to wait until the next chart update to see if the front has started moving or not. Oh well.

New model runs are just begininng, so the extended forecasts should be updated a within the next 3 hours.

One lone watch in the region right now, severe storm watch for SE WI...however I will be monitoring for warnings. At this rate, I am not thinking storm coverage will be needed.

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