WELL THE RAIN SHWRS ARE TRYING TO MOVE THRU IND RIGHT NOW, HOWEVER THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. I AM STILL THINKING THAT THEY WILL HOLD UP LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO FWA, HOWEVER I AM STILL QUESTIONING ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOL AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. THE LOW PRESSURE CAUSING THIS IS MOVING NNE WHICH IS PULLING THE RAIN W/ IT, HOWEVER IF WE'RE LUCKY THE TURN MIGHT SLOW A TAD WHICH COULD GIVE US SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE REGION. AGAIN, I WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS.
15 June 2011
11 June 2011
NEAR TERM:
AS FAR AS TODAY IS TODAY IS CONCERNED, I AM THINKING THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONG STORMS S OF THE REGION TODAY. WE COULD GET A STRAY STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE REGION THIS AFTN, BUT THE MAJORITY OF WHAT FORMS WILL BE JUST REGULAR OL' STORMS. TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE COOL AS WELL, DUE TO THE LACK OF CLEARING. I AM EXPECTING THAT WE MIGHT GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN, BUT NOTHING THAT WILL MAKE ME CHANGE MY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WITHIN THESE CLOUD BREAKS IS WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE (LOWER 80S BEING THE WARMEST).
LOOKING AT THE RECENT MODELS, GFS IS TAKING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTRE OVER NW OHIO THIS EVENING, AND THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, THOUGH I AM GOING TO KEP THE STRONG STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FWA AND TOL AREA THIS EVENING, BUT I MIGHT GIVE IT TO CLE AND ERI DEPENDING ON MY MOOD THIS EVENING.
NOT A DIFFICULT FORECAST, BUT THE TIMING IS GOING TO BE THE HARDEST BECAUSE THE FRONT IS STATIONARY. BECAUSE OF THIS, I AM SORT OF DRAGGING THE PRECIP CHANCES OUT A LITTLE BIT, PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN NECESSARY FOR THE WSTRN HALF OF THE REGION, BUT I WILL BE KEEPING THEM THERE. TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ANYTHING BUT SIMPLE DUE TO THE LACK OF SPEED WITH IT.
I DID GIVE ERI AND BUF SOME CHANCES FOR A STORM IN THE EARLY MORNING TOMM HOWEVER DEPENDING ON WHAT THE NEXT SURFACE CHARTS SAY THIS AFTN, I AM MIGHT ACTUALLY DROP THAT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TOM MORN IN ERI AND BUF.
OTHER:
LOW PRESSURE CENTRED OVER IL AT THIS TIME, WILL SLIDE ESTWARD THIS MORN AND AFTN, BRINGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT W/ IT. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY PASS THRU WSTRN REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND THEN ESTERN HALF OF THE REGION EARLY/MID SUN MORN. ONCE FRONT PASSES THRU, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH COOL AND DRIER AIR THRU TUES. LOOKING AT THE RECENT MODELS, THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE REGION ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. KEEPING ERI AND BUF DRY FOR WED, HOWEVER GIVING BUF SOME CLOUD COVER (DUE TO LAKE WINDS) AND GIVING GRB, FWA, TOL, DET AND CLE SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS. GRB WILL ACTUALLY SEE STORMS POSSIBLE TUES NITE, KEEPING THE REST OF THE ABOVE MENTION AT AFTN STORM CHANCES ON WED. I AM NOT TO CONCERNED ABOUT TIMING AT THIS POINT, ODDS ARE MODELS ARE GOING TO FLUCUATE GREATELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO I WILL BE WAITING UNTIL THIS EVENING TO START WORKING ON THE TIMINGS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
COMMENTS/P.O.I:
WELL THE STATIONARY FRONT IS A BIT FURTHER NRTH IN THE REGION THEN I WOULD PREFER (ESPCIALLY AFTER FORECASTS HAVE JUST BEEN FINALIZED). IM STILL THINKING THAT THE BULK OF THE STRONG STORMS WILL STICK TO THE S OF THE REGION WITH SPC GIVING COLUMBUS AND CINCINNATI AND THT AREA UNDER A SLGHT RISK OF STRONG STORMS, KEEPING TOL AND FWA, AS WELL AS CLE UNDER A MINIMAL CHANCE. ERI IS CLOSE TO THE SLGHT RISK CHANCES, SO I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA THIS AFTN.
NOTICING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BACK IN IL NEAR THE CENTRE OF THE LOW PRESSURE, SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THT. NOTHING STRONG, NO WATCHES, NO WARNINGS SO IT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY-KIND OF.
TIMING OF SYSTEM WILL BE HARDER THAN PREFERED, FRONT IS STATIONARY WHICH MAKES IT A PAIN.
AS FAR AS TODAY IS TODAY IS CONCERNED, I AM THINKING THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONG STORMS S OF THE REGION TODAY. WE COULD GET A STRAY STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE REGION THIS AFTN, BUT THE MAJORITY OF WHAT FORMS WILL BE JUST REGULAR OL' STORMS. TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE COOL AS WELL, DUE TO THE LACK OF CLEARING. I AM EXPECTING THAT WE MIGHT GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN, BUT NOTHING THAT WILL MAKE ME CHANGE MY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WITHIN THESE CLOUD BREAKS IS WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE (LOWER 80S BEING THE WARMEST).
LOOKING AT THE RECENT MODELS, GFS IS TAKING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTRE OVER NW OHIO THIS EVENING, AND THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, THOUGH I AM GOING TO KEP THE STRONG STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FWA AND TOL AREA THIS EVENING, BUT I MIGHT GIVE IT TO CLE AND ERI DEPENDING ON MY MOOD THIS EVENING.
NOT A DIFFICULT FORECAST, BUT THE TIMING IS GOING TO BE THE HARDEST BECAUSE THE FRONT IS STATIONARY. BECAUSE OF THIS, I AM SORT OF DRAGGING THE PRECIP CHANCES OUT A LITTLE BIT, PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN NECESSARY FOR THE WSTRN HALF OF THE REGION, BUT I WILL BE KEEPING THEM THERE. TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ANYTHING BUT SIMPLE DUE TO THE LACK OF SPEED WITH IT.
I DID GIVE ERI AND BUF SOME CHANCES FOR A STORM IN THE EARLY MORNING TOMM HOWEVER DEPENDING ON WHAT THE NEXT SURFACE CHARTS SAY THIS AFTN, I AM MIGHT ACTUALLY DROP THAT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TOM MORN IN ERI AND BUF.
OTHER:
LOW PRESSURE CENTRED OVER IL AT THIS TIME, WILL SLIDE ESTWARD THIS MORN AND AFTN, BRINGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT W/ IT. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY PASS THRU WSTRN REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND THEN ESTERN HALF OF THE REGION EARLY/MID SUN MORN. ONCE FRONT PASSES THRU, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH COOL AND DRIER AIR THRU TUES. LOOKING AT THE RECENT MODELS, THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE REGION ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. KEEPING ERI AND BUF DRY FOR WED, HOWEVER GIVING BUF SOME CLOUD COVER (DUE TO LAKE WINDS) AND GIVING GRB, FWA, TOL, DET AND CLE SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS. GRB WILL ACTUALLY SEE STORMS POSSIBLE TUES NITE, KEEPING THE REST OF THE ABOVE MENTION AT AFTN STORM CHANCES ON WED. I AM NOT TO CONCERNED ABOUT TIMING AT THIS POINT, ODDS ARE MODELS ARE GOING TO FLUCUATE GREATELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO I WILL BE WAITING UNTIL THIS EVENING TO START WORKING ON THE TIMINGS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
COMMENTS/P.O.I:
WELL THE STATIONARY FRONT IS A BIT FURTHER NRTH IN THE REGION THEN I WOULD PREFER (ESPCIALLY AFTER FORECASTS HAVE JUST BEEN FINALIZED). IM STILL THINKING THAT THE BULK OF THE STRONG STORMS WILL STICK TO THE S OF THE REGION WITH SPC GIVING COLUMBUS AND CINCINNATI AND THT AREA UNDER A SLGHT RISK OF STRONG STORMS, KEEPING TOL AND FWA, AS WELL AS CLE UNDER A MINIMAL CHANCE. ERI IS CLOSE TO THE SLGHT RISK CHANCES, SO I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA THIS AFTN.
NOTICING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BACK IN IL NEAR THE CENTRE OF THE LOW PRESSURE, SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THT. NOTHING STRONG, NO WATCHES, NO WARNINGS SO IT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY-KIND OF.
TIMING OF SYSTEM WILL BE HARDER THAN PREFERED, FRONT IS STATIONARY WHICH MAKES IT A PAIN.
06 June 2011
Still not a whole lot has changed with my overall impression of the latest system that I am following. The front has become stationary over IL and the MRV (Miss. River Valley) as of the 09z chart update. High pressure still dominating regional weather however SE flow from high pressure flow will begin to push up warm air and moist air from the south towards the region.
Looking at the latest radar, a cluster of storms N of KORD (Chicago O'Hare Int'l) is moving ESE towards GRB and Lake Michigan at this time. Wondering if it'll hold over Lake Michigan...if so it could be something to keep an eye on for DTW later this evening. GRB will be seeing these storms soon, nothing strong yet however a single warning on one cell...more or less the line is more rainy than anything else...will keep an eye on that however for the fun of it.
Looking at dew points...they are going up over IL at this time...right behind that stationary front. Front is noticable on the recent dew point plot. Could help in aiding some storm development in the region later.
Biggest area for storms that I am watching out for is FTW and TOL and possible DTW. GRB is already going to be seeing storms so I am not to concerned about the accuracy of the forecast for today...seeing as how storms are only about an hour or so away from them at this time.
When this stationary front begins to move E as a warm front, I am thinking it could provide some decent lift later this afternoon in the above mentioned places. Now, I am did put "pop up" for the forecast this afternoon in those areas...that is more for safety. To be 100% confident on that I have to wait until the next chart update to see if the front has started moving or not. Oh well.
New model runs are just begininng, so the extended forecasts should be updated a within the next 3 hours.
One lone watch in the region right now, severe storm watch for SE WI...however I will be monitoring for warnings. At this rate, I am not thinking storm coverage will be needed.
Looking at the latest radar, a cluster of storms N of KORD (Chicago O'Hare Int'l) is moving ESE towards GRB and Lake Michigan at this time. Wondering if it'll hold over Lake Michigan...if so it could be something to keep an eye on for DTW later this evening. GRB will be seeing these storms soon, nothing strong yet however a single warning on one cell...more or less the line is more rainy than anything else...will keep an eye on that however for the fun of it.
Looking at dew points...they are going up over IL at this time...right behind that stationary front. Front is noticable on the recent dew point plot. Could help in aiding some storm development in the region later.
Biggest area for storms that I am watching out for is FTW and TOL and possible DTW. GRB is already going to be seeing storms so I am not to concerned about the accuracy of the forecast for today...seeing as how storms are only about an hour or so away from them at this time.
When this stationary front begins to move E as a warm front, I am thinking it could provide some decent lift later this afternoon in the above mentioned places. Now, I am did put "pop up" for the forecast this afternoon in those areas...that is more for safety. To be 100% confident on that I have to wait until the next chart update to see if the front has started moving or not. Oh well.
New model runs are just begininng, so the extended forecasts should be updated a within the next 3 hours.
One lone watch in the region right now, severe storm watch for SE WI...however I will be monitoring for warnings. At this rate, I am not thinking storm coverage will be needed.
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